The headlines from the Middle East understandably focus on the war in Iraq，the nuclear ambitions of Iran and the Palestinian peace process。But 50 years from now，historians may say that one of the region's most important stories was a profound economic shift：the development of strong ties between the Middle East and the rest of Asia。
A dramatic rise in the flows of goods，capital and people between the oil-rich Gulf and the fast-developing nations of Asia began around the dawn of the new century that may go on to reshape the world economy。We first explored this prospect in these pages last summer（The need for reform along the new Silk Road，July 4 2006）。Since then traffic along what we called“the new Silk Road”-the reincarnation of what had been the world's dominant trade route during the Middle Ages-has reached a new level of intensity。
The volume of trade between the six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council and east Asia roughly quadrupled between 1995 and 2005.Bilateral trade between those regions'two largest nations-China and Saudi Arabia-increased 30 percent between 2005 and 2006 alone。Total cross border capital flows between the council and the rest of Asia may climb from an annual15bn today to300bn by 2020.
Asia's huge and growing appetite for oil remains the principal driver。Imports of Gulf oil by Asian nations（including China and India）are projected to rise at 3.7 percent annually until 2030，accounting for almost half of the world's increased demand for oil。By 2030，China will buy more than half of its oil from the Gulf。
There has also been a significant rise in the pace，scale and scope of inter-regional investments。Alongside huge petro projects-such as the historic agreement that China's Sinopec recently struck with Iran to invest as much as100bn to secure long-term supplies of oil and gas there has been a flurry of big non-oil deals in recent months。Etisalat，the United Arab Emirates partially state-owned telecommunications group，paid2.6bn for a 26 percent stake in Pakistan Telecommunications；and Egypt's Orascom bought 19 percent of Hong Kong's Hutchison Telecom for1.3bn。
UAE's property developers are placing sizeable bets。Damac Holding is building a2.7bn residential，office and leisure complex in Tianjin，China。Emaar Properties-one of the world's largest property developers，based in Dubai-is investing even more to develop entire townships as well as hotels in Pakistan and India。
A host of other indicators-from the new buzzword，“Chime”（denoting the“China，India，Middle East”trade zone），to a more than six-fold increase in direct flights between the Gulf states and China（from 7 a week in 2000 to 48 flights a week in 2006）—point in the same upward direction。
Most important，there is no shortage of optimism in the region。“We want to go global by going east，not west，”declared Mohamed Ali Alabbar，chairman of Emaar。“The west has got aging populations and aging economies。The east is where the true glamour lies。”In recent interviews with McKinsey，more than 20 top Asian and Arab business leaders echoed that outlook。
In spite of the enthusiasm，there are many challenges to overcome。Several senior executives from the Gulf confessed they feel more comfortable doing business with India than with China，largely for bureaucratic and cultural reasons。There is also a language gap and a shortage of interpreters。
The headlines from the Middle East understandably focus on the war in Iraq，the nuclear ambitions of Iran and the Palestinian peace process。But 50 years from now，historians may say that one of the region's most important stories was a profound economic shift：the development of strong ties between the Middle East and the rest of Asia。
If current trends hold up-and if existing potholes are filled in-the new Silk Road should soon emerge as a formidable corridor for global commerce。Between 2005 and 2020，for example，McKinsey estimates that trade flows between the Middle East and China could soar from59bn to between350bn and500bn in real terms，at least a six-fold increase。Moreover，India seems likely to double its gross domestic product by about 2020.
Growth of this magnitude will fulfil today's vision of a vast，prosperous commercial region。Along with business opportunities，it will present increasingly complex geopolitical challenges to the US and Europe，which have long dominated the trade and investment flowing to and from the Middle East。Yet if business and government leaders take constructive action now，they will ensure that the development of the new Silk Road will make both headlines and history。
Dominic Barton is a director in the Shanghai office and Kito de Boer is a director in the Dubai office of McKinsey&Company。
中东的头条新闻集中在伊拉克战争、伊朗核计划和巴勒斯坦和平进程上，这可以理解。但在50年后，历史学家可能会说，该地区最重要的事件之一，是一次意义深远的经济变革：中东和亚洲其它地区之间结成紧密的联系。
在石油丰富的海湾地区和发展迅速的亚洲国家之间，商品、资本和人员流动的显著增强，始自新世纪来临前后，而这可能进而重新决定全球经济的格局。去年夏季，我们首先在论文中探究了这种前景（《新丝绸之路（2006年7月4日）》（The need for reform along the new Silk Road，July 4 2006））。此后，在我们称之为“新丝绸之路”上的贸易流量，达到了新的水平。“新丝绸之路”是中世纪全球主要贸易通道的再现。
1995 年至2005年，海湾合作委员会（Gulf Co-operation Council）6个成员国和东亚之间的贸易量，增长了约3倍。仅在2005年至2006年，中国和沙特阿拉伯这两个地区大国之间的双边贸易，就增长了30%。在2020 年之前，海湾合作委员会与亚洲其它地区之间的跨境资本流总额，可能从目前每年的150亿美元，攀升至3000亿美元。
亚洲国家对石油日益上升的巨大需求，仍是主要的驱动因素。预计截至2030年，亚洲国家（包括中国和印度在内）从海湾进口石油的年度增幅将达到3.7%，约占全球石油需求增量的一半。到2030年，中国一半以上的石油都将从海湾购买。
此外，地区间投资在速度、规模和范围方面也呈显著上升趋势。中国的中石化（Sinopec）最近就与伊朗达成了一项历史性协议，为长期获得石油和天然气供应，中石化将投资高达1000亿美元。除了这种大型石油项目外，最近数月还进行了许多大型非石油交易。阿拉伯联合酋长国部分国有的电信集团Etisalat，以26亿美元购入了巴基斯坦电信公司（Pakistan Telecommunications）26%的股权；埃及的Orascom则以13亿美元购得香港和记电讯（Hutchison Telecom）19%股份。
阿联酋房地产开发商目前正大笔下注。Damac Holding正在中国天津建设一个集居住、办公和休闲于一体的综合建筑群，耗资27亿美元。全球最大的房地产开发商埃玛尔地产（Emaar Properties）在巴基斯坦和印度投入更多资金，开发整个城镇地区及酒店，埃玛尔地产的总部设在迪拜。
许多其它迹象也显示出同样的上升走势——例如，出现了“Chime”（表示“中国、印度、中东”贸易区）这个新词汇，海湾国家和中国之间直飞航班增长逾6倍（从2000年每周7班，到2006年每周48班）。
最重要的是，该地区不缺乏乐观情绪。“我们希望通过东方（而不是西方）走向世界，”埃玛尔地产董事长穆罕默德·阿里·阿拉巴（Mohamed Ali Alabbar）声称。“西方人口不断老龄化，经济也日趋衰老。东方才是真正的魅力所在。”在最近麦肯锡进行的访谈中，逾20位亚洲和阿拉伯顶级商业领袖都赞同上述前景。
尽管热情高涨，但仍需克服许多挑战。数位来自海湾地区的高管坦承，他们觉得和印度做生意，要比与中国做生意更自在，这在很大程度上是出于官僚主义和文化方面的原因。同时也存在语言障碍和翻译人员短缺的问题。
如果目前的趋势持续下去——如果现在凹凸不平的地方能被填平——那么新丝绸之路很快就会成为一条令人敬畏的全球商务走廊。举例来说，麦肯锡估计，2005年至2020年，中东和中国之间的实际贸易额，可能从590亿美元，飙升至3500亿-5000亿美元，至少增长6倍。此外，2020年前后印度的国内生产总值（GDP）有可能翻一番。
这种规模巨大的增长，将使今天对于一片广阔、繁荣的商业地区的设想变成现实。伴随着商业机遇，它将给美欧带来日益复杂的地缘政治挑战，长期以来，美国和欧洲主宰着进出中东的贸易和投资。但是，如果商业领袖和政府首脑现在采取建设性的行动，他们就能够确保新丝绸之路的发展，既成为头条新闻，又名垂史册。
Profound adj。极深的，深厚的，深奥的
Prospect n。景色，展望，希望
Reincarnation n。化身
Scope n。范围，广度
Flurry n。疾风，慌张，飓风
Sizeable adj。相当大的；颇大的
Buzzword n。行话，口号，时髦词语
Bureaucratic adj。官僚政治的
Glamour n。迷人的美，魔法
Magnitude n。大小，光度，重要
Geopolitical adj。地缘政治学的
丝绸之路，简称丝路。是指西汉（公元前202年—公元8年）时，由张骞出使西域开辟的以长安（今西安）为起点，经甘肃、新疆，到中亚、西亚，并联结地中海各国的陆上通道（这条道路也被称为“西北丝绸之路”，以区别日后另外两条冠以“丝绸之路”名称的交通路线）。因为由这条路西运的货物中以丝绸制品的数量最大，故得此名）。其基本走向定于两汉时期，包括南道、中道、北道三条路线。
