In the long term， however， the best way by far to improve economic opportunity and to reduce inequality is to increase the educational attainment and skills of American workers. The productivity surge in the decades after World War II corresponded to a period in which educational attainment was increasing rapidly； in recent decades， progress on that front has been far slower. Moreover， inequalities in education and in access to education remain high. As we think about improving education and skills， we should also look beyond the traditional K-12 and 4-year-college system-as important as it is-to recognize that education should be lifelong and can come in many forms. Early childhood education， community colleges， vocational schools， on- the-job training， online courses， adult education-all of these are vehicles of demonstrated value in increasing skills and lifetime earning power. The use of a wide range of methods to address the pressing problems of inadequate skills and economic inequality would be entirely consistent with the themes of economic adaptability and flexibility that I have emphasized in my remarks.
I will close by shifting from the topic of education in general to your education specifically. Through effort， talent， and doubtless some luck， you have succeeded in acquiring an excellent education. Your education-more precisely， your ability to think critically and creatively-is your greatest asset. And unlike many assets， the more you draw on it， the faster it grows. Put it to good use.
The poor forecasting record of economists is legendary， but I will make a forecast in which I am very confident： Whatever you expect your life and workto be like 10， 20， or 30 years from now， the reality will be quite different. In looking over the 30th anniversary report on my own class， I was struck by the great diversity of vocations and avocations that have engaged my classmates. To be sure， the volume was full of attorneys and physicians and professors as well as architects， engineers， editors， bankers， and even a few economists. Many listed the title“vice president，”and， not a few，“president.”But the class of 1975 also includes those who listed their occupations as composer， environmental advocate， musician， playwright， rabbi， conflict resolution coach， painter， community organizer， and essayist. And even for those of us with the more conventional job descriptions， the nature of our daily work and its relationship to the economy and society is， I am sure， very different from what we might have guessed in 1975. My point is only that you cannot predict your path. You can only try to be as prepared as possible for the opportunities， as well as the disappointments， that will come your way. For people， as for economies， adaptability and flexibility count for a great deal.
Wherever your path leads， I hope you use your considerable talents and energy in endeavors that engage and excite you and benefit not only yourselves， but also in some measure your country and your world. Today， I wish you and your families a day of joyous celebration. Congratulations.
汉语回放（胡尊艳译）
对于我来说，1975年参加毕业纪念日的情景既像是很久以前的事情，又恍如昨日。今天有幸被哈佛的学子们邀请参加毕业纪念日，我感到非常高兴与自豪。1975年我们的讲演者是具有尖刻讽刺倾向的社会批评家兼喜剧演员狄克·葛雷葛利先生。通常银行家并不喜欢讽刺，因此，我将尽力使今天的演讲生动起来。
当我作为一名毕业生参加毕业纪念日时，学校校长是杰拉尔德·福特先生，他的首席经济顾问是一个名叫艾伦·格林斯潘的前途不可限量的小伙子。仅在几周前，胡志明市的最后一名美国人才通过直升机撤退。先说点儿让人高兴的事情，当时红袜队正在夺取美国棒球联赛的胜利，我逃课观看辛辛那提红袜队的世界联赛。红袜队总是在要拿冠军的时候与冠军宝座擦肩而过，这似乎成为那个时期的恶性循环。因此，当其他事情--迪斯科音乐和宠物石头涌入我脑海的时候，很多事情在今天看来都比那时好了很多。事实上，这就是我今天演讲的主题。
虽然1975年对于红袜队是相当不错的一年，但是对于美国经济来说就不那么乐观了。就跟今天一样，当时我们正在经历严重的石油危机、食品和其他日用品价格急剧上涨以及经济增长速度缓慢等一系列危机。但是，在对比1975年和2008年的经济形势时，我看到更多的是启示，而非两者的相似性。今天我们的经济和社会更加灵活，更能适应新的困境和挑战，这在很大程度上决定了如今的形势与36年前不同，此外经济决策水平的提高，以往的失败所提供的经验教训等都会决定如今与以往不同。当然，我并不是在小看我们当今面临的挑战，一会儿我还将说到这个话题。但是我的确认为，过去我们在积极、快速地应对过去的苦难时所显示出的能力，有理由让我们对未来保持乐观。
今天我演讲的重点是困扰20世纪70年代和当今的两大经济难题--能源危机和生产力。显然，这个主题与最近的几位演讲者，比如威尔·法瑞尔、阿里·G，或是赛斯·迈克法雷恩的选题都不属于同一类别。但是，无论如何，当哈佛的课程导师，在邀请经济学家的时候应该可以知道他们想要得到什么吧。
由于今天毕业班的成员和你们当中的一些教授，都出生于1975年之后，我就先简单地介绍一下20世纪70年代中期的经济形势。当时我们的经济刚刚经历了严重的衰退，我们的经济产量、工资和劳动力需求都急剧下降，失业率达9%。同时，在20世纪70年代早期消费物价上涨率为3%至4%，而到我毕业那年已蹿升至10%以上。
由于赎罪日战争的影响，20世纪70年代的石油危机于1973年10月正式开始。石油生产国阿拉伯开始禁止石油输出。在1972年实施禁止石油输出之前，进口石油的价格大约是每桶3.2美元，而1975年的石油价格则升至每桶14美元，是原来价格的4倍多。尼克松总统曾于1971年对工资和物价进行经济调控，包括石油产品的价格。1973年11月，石油禁运之后，总统又加大了对石油价格的调控力度。
正如基本经济规律预示的那样，当某一稀缺资源的价格不能通过市场进行调节时，它将通过其他方式进行分配。在这种情况下，出现了那个年代标志性的一幕，即加油站前排起了长队。1974年，为尝试克服价格控制所导致的不可预知的结果，许多地方的司机只能在每个月的奇数日或偶数日购买汽油，具体日期由车牌的最后一位数决定。此外，美国对石油价格的控制使得美国的原油价格远远低于全球平均价格，从而导致国内石油开采量下降，如此一来，情况就变得更加糟糕了。
除了加油站外面排起长队，石油危机还使得通胀趋势更加明显，通胀的程度比预期显著提高。与今天相似的一个情景是：不断上涨的农产品和其他日用品的价格使得通货膨胀形势进一步恶化。
